Chicago Bears Playoff Chances May 2023: Tracking the Bears Playoff Picture

By Mike Ferguson
Fact Checked by Wes Roesch
Justin Fields throws the ball

Key Takeaways:

  • After finishing with the worst record in the NFC, the Chicago Bears have a 38.5% chance to make the playoffs in 2023. 
  • The Bears currently hold a 22.2% chance to win the NFC North.
  • Chicago owns just a 2% chance to win Super Bowl LVIII.

The Chicago Bears weren’t very good in 2021 and they somehow took a step back in 2022. With a 3-14 record, the Bears owned the worst record in the NFC. Throughout the entire NFL, only the Houston Texans finished with a worse record. Many remain optimistic about Justin Fields’ future at quarterback, but the biggest problem was on the other side of the ball as the Bears allowed the most points per game in the NFL.

Chicago hopes for better results in its second year under head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears have not had a winning season since 2018 but did make the postseason at 8-8 in 2020. As the offseason continues, we will provide the latest odds and playoff chances for the Bears to end that drought. 

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What are the Bears Playoff Chances?

The Chicago Bears playoff chances are 38.5%, so they aren’t expected by oddsmakers to make the playoffs, but they’re not as much of a long shot as they may seem. Below is a look at Chicago’s current odds to make the postseason and more.

Bears Playoff Chances38.5% Chance
Bears Miss Playoffs65.5% Chance
👑 Bears Win Super Bowl2% Chance
🏆 Bears Win NFC3.8% Chance
🔥 Bears Win NFC North22.2% Chance
🗽 New York Times Postseason SimulatorNot Available Yet
🏈 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)-2.4 FPI
Data Verified by ExpertMay 31, 2023

To come up with the current percentages for the chart above, we used odds currently listed at DraftKings Sportsbook and calculated implied probability. Many other Illinois sportsbooks such as BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook offer odds to win the Super Bowl. The Bears are listed at +160 to make the playoffs which calculates to a 38.5% chance. The 65.5% chance to miss the postseason comes with a moneyline of -190.

Believe it or not, the Bears’ 22.2% chance to win the NFC North – or a +350 moneyline – is the second-best in the division along with the Minnesota Vikings. Only the Green Bay Packers have worse odds while Detroit Lions hold the best chance to win the NFC North. Despite a decent amount of optimism from oddsmakers, considering the Bears won just three football games last season, they hold just a 3.8% chance to win the NFC and just a 2% chance to win the Super Bowl. That’s tied for the ninth-best odds in the NFC.

Although neither are currently available, the New York Times’ Postseason Simulator and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) are each helpful tools in determining a team’s playoff chances. Last year, the Seattle Seahawks were the only team with a negative FPI to make the playoffs.

Chicago Bears Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates May 2023

Stay up to date with the latest Bears news and how it impacts their postseason chances.

  • 📆 April 27: Selected T Darnell Wright (Tennessee) with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
  • 📆 March 16: Signed RB D’Onta Foreman. Foreman led the Panthers with 914 yards rushing and five touchdowns last season.
  • 📆 March 15: Signed DL DeMarcus Walker. Walker had a career-high seven sacks last season for the Tennessee Titans.
  • 📆 March 15: Signed LB Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds is a two-time Pro Bowler and has recorded at least 100 total tackles in each of his five seasons in the NFL.
  • 📆 March 15: Acquired multiple draft picks and WR D.J. Moore from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick. Moore has three seasons with 1,100-plus yards receiving in five years.

Make sure to bookmark this page to stay up to date with recent Bears news and developments.

Where Can I Bet on the Bears to Make the Playoffs?

Fortunately for fans in the Windy City, sports betting is legal in the state of Illinois. DraftKings Sportsbook is the Illinois platform where fans can currently bet on the Bears to make or miss the playoffs, win the NFC North, NFC or the Super Bowl.

Those props are available at other sportsbooks such as BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel. All currently have Super Bowl odds for the Bears. FanDuel currently has Chicago as the longest shot at +6000.

Looking Ahead: Bears Playoff Picture

Oddsmakers aren’t currently high on the Chicago Bears to make the playoffs and fans shouldn’t be either. One thing that the Bears do have going for them is that the NFC North isn’t the toughest of divisions. The Detroit Lions are the current betting favorite while Green Bay and Minnesota may be in the midst of rebuilds.

While he hasn’t produced the way many had hoped for at the NFL level as a passer, Chicago remains committed to quarterback Justin Fields, who has proven to be a dynamic runner. The Bears worked hard to add weapons and protection for Fields this offseason with the addition of wide receiver D.J. Moore and the selection of Darnell Wright in the first round.

The Bears were in the lower third of the NFL last season in yards and points per game, but the biggest issue was the defensive side of the ball. Chicago worked to revamp the front seven with the additions of defensive lineman DeMarcus Walker and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. The Bears also used a pair of second-round picks to address the defense with the selections of defensive lineman Gervon Dexter and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson.

A trip to the playoffs seems a bit optimistic for the Bears in 2023, but with the moves they have made and with another year under the belt for Fields, they may not be that far away. When it comes to the NFC, the North may be the weakest division and could wind up getting just a single postseason bid.

Do the Bears Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Given the +160 odds, the Bears might not be the best bet to make the playoffs, but they’re definitely a team that should be optimistic about the future. Most experts probably see the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings as more playoff-ready teams in the NFC North, but Minnesota could be moving some key pieces this offseason. 

Looking ahead to the 2023 schedule, things don’t look too daunting. In addition to six games against NFC North opponents, the Bears will play the NFC South, which didn’t have a team finish with a winning record last year. Chicago will also play a fourth-place schedule which means games against fellow last-place teams from last season like the Washington Commanders, Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns. In total, Chicago will play just five of its 17 games against teams that made the playoffs last year.

Are the Bears Out of Playoffs?

No, given that the start of the regular season is roughly four months away, no team has been eliminated from the playoffs yet. It may have been crazy to think about midway through the 2022 season, but the best odds for winning the NFC North belong to the Detroit Lions, followed by Chicago.

The NFC North may get just its winner into the postseason, but to win the division, it may take just nine or 10 wins. With 12 games against teams that missed the playoffs last year, the Bears definitely have a puncher’s chance. Making the playoffs would be a stellar year for Chicago. Expecting anything more is far too optimistic.

Chicago Bears Playoffs FAQs


Mike Ferguson is a football betting analyst for Mike spends his days browsing the latest lines for all the top NFL football betting markets to find storylines curated specifically for sports bettors in IL. Mike will also turn his attention to NBA, MLB or NHL betting lines that Illinois sports bettors might be interested in but football odds are Mike's expertise.

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