NFL Franchise Tag: Will Jaylon Johnson Be Worth It?

NFL Franchise Tag: Will Jaylon Johnson Be Worth It?
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

The deadline for National Football League franchise and transition player designations was March 5, in advance of the 2024 free agency signing period, which begins March 13 at 4:00 p.m. ET.

So,, always thinking about an edge in Illinois sports betting, wondered what kind of effect the franchise tag has had on players.

Utilizing, we calculated the positive or negative difference between a franchise-tagged players’ season before and after the tag occurred. We then found the average approximate value (AV) per player of the last three franchise tag classes combined.  Here are the findings:

How Franchise Tagged Players Perform After Deals

Franchise Tag Class # of Players Franchise Tagged  Total Approximate Value (YoY change) Average Approximate Value (YoY change) 
2023  6-12-2.0 per player
2022 8-2-0.25 per player
2021 10-6-0.60 per player
3-Year Span  24-20-0.83 per player

The research here is from and won’t be on any Illinois betting apps.

How Will Franchise Tag Affect Bears’ Johnson?

For the second time in the last three years, eight players have been designated with the franchise tag with one transition player. One of the eight players to be franchised this season is Chicago Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson.

In his fourth year this past season, Johnson earned his first Pro Bowl selection after starting in 14 games with a career-high four interceptions, one forced fumble and h 36 tackles (31 solo). He garnered Pro Football Writers' First Team All-Conference, Second Team Associated Press and First Team Pro Football Focus honors.

The biggest recent drop-off among tagged players was Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (from 15 AV in 2022 to 6 AV in 2023). Former four-year Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson was franchised in 2020 with an approximate value of 11 (102 receptions for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns). In 2021, his AV value dropped eight spots to 3 after 38 catches for 410 yards and just one TD.

The most notable player to see a significant jump over the past three seasons: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who went from an AV value of 12 in 2022 to 19 in 2023.

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ESPN BET Futures

Here are the latest future odds on the Bears over at ESPN BET Illinois late Wednesday afternoon:

  • Super Bowl winner: +4000
  • NFC winner: +1600
  • NFC North Division winner: +425

The Bears have the No. 1 overall pick (from the Carolina Panthers) in this year NFL Draft in Detroit (April 25-27). They are expected to draft a quarterback and move on from Justin Fields. Here is our most recent update on Justin Fields next team odds.

Last season Chicago (7-10) finished tied with the Minnesota Vikings for last place in the NFC North. Count on to follow the Bears in the draft and through the season. When it comes time for NFL betting, have our Illinois sportsbook promos at the ready.

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Lou Monaco

Lou Monaco had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media ( in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

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