Does Playing At Guaranteed Rate Field Guarantee A Spectacle?

Does Playing At Guaranteed Rate Field Guarantee A Spectacle?
Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

Play ball! The 2023 MLB season is underway across Illinois sports betting, and everyone knows one of the most exciting plays in baseball is the home run. But with so many teams and so many unique ballparks across North America, seeing a home run in one spot is not the same as seeing it somewhere else. 

Field sizes, park atmospheres, team lineups and more all have a big effect on how often and how exciting each long ball is going to be.

With all of this in mind, used the Park Factors Statcast information from to determine which MLB ballparks you would be most likely to see a home run at. Statcast park effects show the observed effect of each displayed stat based on the events in the selected park. 

While this is not an exact science, it gives us an idea of which parks are affecting the players the most. Team lineups and hitters abilities also obviously play a role in which teams hit the most homers.

So before you scan Illinois sports betting apps for the night's MLB slate, take some time to familiarize yourself with the ballparks where you are most likely to see a home run.

Top-10 MLB Stadiums for Home Runs This Season

Rank*Ballpark Team Average HR Park Factor Rank*
1Great American Ball ParkCincinnati Reds1.0
2Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia Phillies4.3
T-3 Guaranteed Rate Field Chicago White Sox 4.7
T-3 Dodger Stadium Los Angeles Dodgers 4.7
T-5 Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore Orioles 5.0
T-5 Coors Field Colorado Rockies 5.0
T-7 Angel Stadium Los Angeles Angels 7.0
T-7 Rogers Centre Toronto Blue Jays 7.0
9 Nationals Park Washington Nationals 8.3
10 Yankee Stadium New York Yankees 10.0

*Over the last 3 seasons

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Reason For Optimism This Season

The aptly named Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati sits at the top of the list, as the park ranks well ahead of the rest when it comes to home runs allowed. It received a 150 park factor mark over the past three seasons for home runs allowed. This means for batters and pitchers who played both at GABP and elsewhere, 50% more home runs were observed at GABP. Citizens Field Park in Philadelphia and Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago round out the top three.

Guaranteed Rate Field was the first of many new ballparks to open in the 1990’s when the White Sox debuted there in 1991. The field is a hitter friendly place, ranking in the top five of park effects for home runs last year, and ranking second over the past three years combined. Their 124 park effects rank for home runs trails Cincinnati by quite a bit, but still sits firmly in second place.

White Sox fans attending home games hoping to see their team put up big offensive numbers last year often went home disappointed despite the offense-friendly ballpark. Not a single White Sox player was able to hit more than 20 home runs, although seven different players hit more than ten. As a team, they ranked 22nd with 149 home runs, tied with the Colorado Rockies. who also struggled to hit home runs despite playing in a home run-friendly environment for half of their games.

With a new coaching staff this year there is optimism that the White Sox will be able to deliver more explosive moments for their home crowd. They are currently +240 to win the AL Central over at BetMGM Illinois Sportsbook behind the Guardians and Twins.

Young sluggers Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez should benefit in a big way from the new, more power-based hitting philosophy employed by the new staff. Robert is the top Sox player on the DraftKings Illinois Sportsbook board to be named AL Most Valuable Player, at +4000.

Last season was unquestionably a disappointing one for the Sox, as they failed to take advantage of a weak AL Central division. The division is still anything but strong with Cleveland favored at the top (+120 at BetMGM) but not a slam dunk by any means. 

One could argue that the White Sox are the most talented team on paper, so fans attending games at Guaranteed Rate Field have reason for optimism with the skill level of the team combined with the home run friendly atmosphere.

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Cecil Peters
Senior Betting Analyst

Cecil Peters is a Senior Betting Analyst for A professional sports bettor in Canada, Cecil specializes in analyzing the latest odds impacting professional sports, particularly MLB and the NHL. He will be providing insight throughout the baseball season.

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